I'll be having a big bet on England to beat Montenegro tonight, with the idea to trade-out if there is a first goal. I will only need them to go 1-0 up for this to happen. Montenegro rely heavily on Mirko Vucinic of Roma, so if England can stop him, that's half the job done. Czech Republic are another team under pressure. You've got to like their odds of 1.16 to beat Liechtenstein. Those will be my main 2 bets today.
I've also had a fun £10
8 team accumulator. I don't expect anything from this because you're relying on luck. You never know though. It's a big win if it does come up.
Total P&L - 4th-12th Oct: +£344.42
How did you get on with the England match, crap result but we should have expected it.
ReplyDeleteLost on it. I got out for most at half time though, so could have been worse.
ReplyDeleteFunny thing is, Vucinic wasn't even playing as well....
Good to see you posting some of your picks, too bad it didnt quite work out this time though. Do you often bet/trade on such low odds?
ReplyDeleteThats when a big bankroll comes in handy i guess!
They were awful.
ReplyDeleteMarket still expected a goal throughout the entire match just because of the patriot punters.
Prices were severely skewed at HT even though it was evident England were not getting it all their own way and throughout the entire match I don't think they created one clear cut goal-scoring opportunity.
There may be things we can take advantage of if we are to pay a little more attention next time out.
Let's see how low they'll back England for Euro 2012 :-)
It looked terrible didn't it. They just don't gel as a team and Montenegro actually looked better at times.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, the last month has been poor for me - since I've been back from the US Open. Greed got the better of me, I've taken more risks and it's not worked out. That 2k losing week, last week....was a killer.
When I say taken more risks, it's the classic, not 'trading out when I should have done'. I would not have got in this small mess, if I would have traded out of a lot of the bets I had - and I had the opportunity at almost every stage. I let a lot of bets run, thinking it was nailed on, and low and behold.....the inevitable happened. A lot of the time backing at odds of 1.9 (for example) and trading out @ 1.7 was never enough. I would have to go in for a bit more and it backfired many times.
That's in part how I know this works 100%, almost every loss I had, I could have got out for a profit if only greed didn't get in my way. That’s all I have to do for this to work. And it’s so easy as well. Keep it simple, don’t get greedy and I will be in profit. That's how I did so well for 7 months. I was so careful with what I was doing. I know the errors I’ve made, so at least that’s a good thing.
I try and find value btw, that’s how I went about it. Before the last month I was a very good judge on when there would be another goal in a match, and made a lot on the correct score market on many games. Tennis trading as well, we know how popular this is. Backing a player who looks good at certain odds and getting out a bit lower. Educated gambles at times as well - when it seems unlikely that a player would lose 0-3 in sets, and laying for big stake. This is how I did so well. A big bank plays a big part like you say. The bigger the bank the better.
Thanks for your insight. I think you made me a little better at trading today! So far I've only been trading at the tennis markets though. I will definitely have a go at football trading after the Beijing masters... I get too little sleep when they are playing in asia ;)
ReplyDeleteI just got one more question. Did you start out with a big bankroll aswell? For me its a little hard to try and trade with a smaller bankroll because even if my trading is successful, I dont gain that much... Therefore I often try to boost it up a little and take bigger risks and if that goes well I try to boost it up a little more ;-)
ReplyDeleteJohn u have learned a lot about what works and what doesnt. luckily for you the answer is staring you in the face and the best part is you have already seen it. best of luck m8
ReplyDeleteMats, I built it up from around 500 pounds. It took me around 7 months to get to 12k. The bigger bank you have the better because it brings stability and confidence in placing the bets.
ReplyDeleteI meant 22k btw.
ReplyDelete12K was my bank size at one stage.
Hi- Great blog and one that I’ve followed for a while. I’ve set my own up and it would be greatly appreciated if you could add mine to your blogroll. I’ve deliberately waited a while before sending this request so that I can show you I’m not a “flash in the pan” blogger”!
ReplyDeleteNo probs....what's the link?
ReplyDeleteinteresting read. betting can seem so easy and technical but sometimes an individual or team having a bad day can kill the bet!!
ReplyDelete