Monday, 14 May 2012

March 9th-May 14th

 March 9th-May 14th 2012:

Australian wallet:



  1. Bloody hell, great results there, if it wasn't for the Aussie Rugby League, hey!

    Do you mind me asking what sort of size stakes you are using?? (Understand if you don't want to answer that)


  2. Yeah, big thanks to the Melbourne Storm for that! Ah well! you take the wins with the wins and losses with the losses so it's fine. It was a great day anyway money-wise, so I was ok with taking such a risk.

    I use big stakes, although in the last few weeks I've been quite aggressive with how I've gone about things, whilst using the knowledge I have on most markets. Especially on the IPL cricket, which I've done very well on this year (I've found most of the matches are easy to read compared to prevous years).

    I'm going to be more controlled from now on, because I don't want to undo all this good work I've done on Betfair. I know a bad loss could be around the corner if I go as I am, and there is no need from a personal point of view to do so. I'm going to build things gradually and be less aggressive in my approach. Making 2k as I did last week was good, but there is no need. Ok if the opportunity arises, I will, but for the most part will try and take it easy. It's been a good run. Hoping it continues to go in the right direction.

  3. Thanks for the reply. I understand what you mean with the large stakes when you have knowledge of a market.

    For example I will only gamble 5% of my bank on football, which I claim to know a bit about, but it can be unpredictable.

    But on Test match cricket I would at times put all my bank on some games as I just know what the worst case scenario could be and I know I can get out for a nominal loss at worst if things start to go wrong, but the profits can be great if it goes right.

    I do sometimes consider just trading test matches alone.

    A lot of people swear by the T20, I prefer test cricket myself, but mean to look into doing IPL, etc one day, problem is I'm at work for majority of T20 games.

    The other key to having a large bank (I would imagine) is you can trade in and out quite quickly for reasonable profits?

    I often find working with a smaller bank I stay in a trade too long looking for a bigger win, when if I had a larger bank I think I might be happier to trade out for a larger cash win, albeit a smaller percentage wise profit, and maybe lessen the risk of a loss.

    I'm not 100% sure I trust myself with a larger betting bank at the moment, that's why I am trying to win it first, but I can find it's 2 steps forward, then 4 back.

    I'll remember not to back Melbourne Storm :))

  4. People in the past have said I should just stick to sports and markets I know best (or 'specialise' in). I've always said I'm comfortable on all markets, and bank size was the only issue. There are sports I do better than others, but I'm ok with anything barring the obvious (UFC for example). Enough money in the market is also a potential problem.

    It's funny you do well on Test matches - I don't think I have the patience to trade for 3 days on a test match. That would be one area of weakness for me. Horse-racing as well, which is a shame as there is so much money in the horse racing markets - those with fast pics or who bet from the racecourse will always have the edge over the likes of me.

    There are so many advantages to having a big bank for someone who knows what they are doing. Like you say, you can back something knowing that it will trade lower and before you know it you've made a very big profit in seconds.

    I'm just relieved it's gone right all of a sudden, as I've spent the last year and a half struggling to get over £500.

    Btw, Melbourne Storm are very reliable usually. It was their first defeat last weekend. They'll probably win next week, although don't quote me on it.

    This morning I requested my life-time profit and loss from Betfair (since I started in 2007) so will do a write up on that in the week. I'm interested to know how much I'm up in that time, or down.

  5. I agree (Re: markets you're comfortable with), it's what you're comfortable with. It's ok people telling you what works for them, it's what works for you that's important.

    With regard to test cricket, I have noticed on Twitter that I seem to be in the minority with regard to trading test cricket. I like it as there is often one of the three outcomes that will not get backed in, meaning a lay is generally always available.

    I'm like you with the horses, I know jack about them, shame really as they must be the best thing to trade on Betfair with regard to regularity and liquidity . But I believe you are right about people having an edge in those markets, whether they have software that gets their bets matched quicker also, as well as the on course traders. It's a minefield I stay well out of in general.

    Be interesting to see what your overall Betfair figures are. Don't think I'll be requesting mine any time soon, I've about 10 years worth and dread to think what they might be like.